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Forte Strategy
(116308970)

Created by: MaestroCapitalResrch MaestroCapitalResrch
Started: 02/2018
Stocks
Last trade: Yesterday
Trading style: Equity Hedged Equity Trend-following

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $49.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Hedged Equity
Category: Equity

Hedged Equity

Core holding of long equities hedged at all times with short sales of stocks and/or stock index options.
Trend-following
Category: Equity

Trend-following

Tries to take advantage of long, medium or short-term moves that seem to play out in various markets. Typically, trend-following analysis is backward looking; that is, it attempts to recognize and profit from already-established trends.
6.2%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(19.4%)
Max Drawdown
727
Num Trades
62.0%
Win Trades
1.1 : 1
Profit Factor
55.0%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2018       +1.2%+0.4%+6.0%(2.9%)+0.8%+4.1%+1.2%(0.5%)(5%)(0.8%)+4.3%+8.6%
2019+4.6%(0.4%)(3.6%)+9.2%(1.5%)+3.7%+2.8%(10.7%)(1.4%)                  +1.5%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 24 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 723 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
9/9/19 10:16 UWT VELOCITY SHS 3X LONG CRUDE OIL TO S&P/GSCI INDEX LONG 1,272 13.28 9/17 9:49 13.86 1.37%
Trade id #125274141
Max drawdown($3,011)
Time9/12/19 0:00
Quant open1,272
Worst price10.91
Drawdown as % of equity-1.37%
$733
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/16/19 9:30 GUSH DIREXION DAILY S&P OIL GAS EXPL PROD BUL LONG 4,825 5.01 9/17 9:34 4.88 1.39%
Trade id #125366778
Max drawdown($3,109)
Time9/17/19 0:00
Quant open4,825
Worst price4.37
Drawdown as % of equity-1.39%
($654)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/13/19 10:10 DUST DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA LONG 4,080 7.87 9/17 9:30 7.85 0.11%
Trade id #125343329
Max drawdown($244)
Time9/16/19 0:00
Quant open4,080
Worst price7.81
Drawdown as % of equity-0.11%
($78)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
8/13/19 9:30 TMF DIREXION DAILY 20+ YR TRSY BUL LONG 1,204 31.67 9/13 10:42 27.43 2.3%
Trade id #124904445
Max drawdown($5,044)
Time9/13/19 10:40
Quant open1,204
Worst price27.48
Drawdown as % of equity-2.30%
($5,110)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/12/19 10:10 TMV DIREXION DAILY 20+ YR TRSY BEA LONG 2,468 11.11 9/13 10:22 11.67 0.2%
Trade id #125327517
Max drawdown($448)
Time9/12/19 10:11
Quant open2,468
Worst price10.93
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
$1,373
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/13/19 9:30 DUST DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA LONG 4,080 7.93 9/13 9:36 8.00 0.09%
Trade id #125341868
Max drawdown($204)
Time9/13/19 9:32
Quant open4,080
Worst price7.88
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
$286
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
8/30/19 9:30 SOXL DIREXION DAILY SEMICONDCT BULL LONG 305 151.30 9/11 15:52 166.49 0.84%
Trade id #125157333
Max drawdown($1,870)
Time9/3/19 0:00
Quant open152
Worst price144.36
Drawdown as % of equity-0.84%
$4,629
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.10
8/29/19 9:30 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 490 60.44 9/11 15:52 64.88 0.51%
Trade id #125138302
Max drawdown($1,138)
Time9/3/19 0:00
Quant open490
Worst price58.11
Drawdown as % of equity-0.51%
$2,168
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.80
9/10/19 9:30 DUST DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA LONG 4,307 7.78 9/11 11:40 7.39 0.98%
Trade id #125288824
Max drawdown($2,155)
Time9/11/19 0:00
Quant open4,307
Worst price7.28
Drawdown as % of equity-0.98%
($1,680)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/10/19 9:30 TMV DIREXION DAILY 20+ YR TRSY BEA LONG 2,649 10.57 9/11 9:30 11.11 0.12%
Trade id #125288786
Max drawdown($260)
Time9/10/19 9:42
Quant open2,649
Worst price10.47
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
$1,429
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/10/19 9:30 GUSH DIREXION DAILY S&P OIL GAS EXPL PROD BUL LONG 10,977 4.09 9/11 9:30 4.23 0.37%
Trade id #125288779
Max drawdown($819)
Time9/11/19 0:00
Quant open5,557
Worst price3.94
Drawdown as % of equity-0.37%
$1,511
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $10.00
8/29/19 9:30 SVXY PROSHARES SHORT VIX SHORT-TERM LONG 470 50.42 9/10 9:40 50.97 0.25%
Trade id #125138305
Max drawdown($566)
Time9/3/19 0:00
Quant open470
Worst price49.21
Drawdown as % of equity-0.25%
$250
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/3/19 10:05 OILD PROSHARES ULTRAPRO 3X SHORT CRUDE OIL ETF LONG 496 22.54 9/10 9:39 16.92 1.32%
Trade id #125195705
Max drawdown($2,896)
Time9/10/19 9:30
Quant open496
Worst price16.70
Drawdown as % of equity-1.32%
($2,798)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.92
8/23/19 9:30 DRIP DIREXION DAILY S&P OIL GAS EXPL PROD BEA LONG 330 110.32 9/9 10:13 89.78 2.18%
Trade id #125056641
Max drawdown($5,088)
Time8/29/19 0:00
Quant open330
Worst price94.90
Drawdown as % of equity-2.18%
($6,787)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.60
9/5/19 9:33 GUSH DIREXION DAILY S&P OIL GAS EXPL PROD BUL LONG 6,559 3.41 9/9 9:30 3.58 0.61%
Trade id #125230457
Max drawdown($1,367)
Time9/6/19 0:00
Quant open6,559
Worst price3.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.61%
$1,120
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/3/19 15:54 UWT VELOCITY SHS 3X LONG CRUDE OIL TO S&P/GSCI INDEX LONG 1,538 10.90 9/6 15:52 12.47 0.02%
Trade id #125203304
Max drawdown($46)
Time9/3/19 15:58
Quant open1,538
Worst price10.87
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
$2,410
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/4/19 15:01 NUGT DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BUL LONG 514 44.73 9/6 14:57 37.62 1.61%
Trade id #125221300
Max drawdown($3,601)
Time9/6/19 14:28
Quant open386
Worst price35.40
Drawdown as % of equity-1.61%
($3,665)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.64
8/15/19 15:29 LABD DIREXION DAILY S&P BIOTECH BEAR 3X LONG 823 22.77 9/5 15:52 22.15 0.97%
Trade id #124955478
Max drawdown($2,361)
Time8/19/19 0:00
Quant open823
Worst price19.90
Drawdown as % of equity-0.97%
($514)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
8/23/19 10:29 NUGT DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BUL LONG 480 37.38 9/3 15:47 42.68 0.02%
Trade id #125058928
Max drawdown($52)
Time8/23/19 10:40
Quant open480
Worst price37.27
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
$2,535
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.60
8/29/19 15:45 LABU DIREXION DAILY S&P BIOTECH BULL LONG 774 37.93 9/3 10:21 35.98 0.73%
Trade id #125149938
Max drawdown($1,638)
Time9/3/19 10:05
Quant open774
Worst price35.81
Drawdown as % of equity-0.73%
($1,512)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
8/14/19 9:46 UWT VELOCITY SHS 3X LONG CRUDE OIL TO S&P/GSCI INDEX LONG 6,018 12.06 8/30 15:52 11.76 0.72%
Trade id #124928320
Max drawdown($1,761)
Time8/22/19 0:00
Quant open4,088
Worst price11.54
Drawdown as % of equity-0.72%
($1,815)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $15.00
8/27/19 12:53 TVIX VELOCITYSHARES DAILY 2X VIX SH LONG 550 21.10 8/29 15:52 17.72 0.88%
Trade id #125106543
Max drawdown($1,999)
Time8/29/19 12:55
Quant open550
Worst price17.46
Drawdown as % of equity-0.88%
($1,863)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
8/28/19 9:32 SOXS DIREXION DAILY SEMICONDCT BEAR LONG 595 48.91 8/29 10:08 43.52 1.49%
Trade id #125119826
Max drawdown($3,471)
Time8/29/19 0:00
Quant open595
Worst price43.08
Drawdown as % of equity-1.49%
($3,217)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.45
8/7/19 13:50 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 411 57.99 8/28 15:52 58.24 0.48%
Trade id #124819593
Max drawdown($1,199)
Time8/15/19 0:00
Quant open411
Worst price55.07
Drawdown as % of equity-0.48%
$95
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.22
8/19/19 9:30 SVXY PROSHARES SHORT VIX SHORT-TERM LONG 495 51.13 8/28 9:34 48.30 0.58%
Trade id #124986055
Max drawdown($1,399)
Time8/23/19 0:00
Quant open495
Worst price48.30
Drawdown as % of equity-0.58%
($1,410)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.90
8/19/19 9:30 SOXL DIREXION DAILY SEMICONDCT BULL LONG 317 155.69 8/28 9:32 137.86 1.82%
Trade id #124986061
Max drawdown($4,265)
Time8/27/19 0:00
Quant open237
Worst price137.70
Drawdown as % of equity-1.82%
($5,659)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.34
8/19/19 9:30 LABU DIREXION DAILY S&P BIOTECH BULL LONG 765 41.70 8/23 11:35 37.52 1.33%
Trade id #124986057
Max drawdown($3,151)
Time8/23/19 11:11
Quant open765
Worst price37.59
Drawdown as % of equity-1.33%
($3,208)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
8/7/19 9:30 DRIP DIREXION DAILY S&P OIL GAS EXPL PROD BEA LONG 509 109.81 8/20 15:52 104.48 2.14%
Trade id #124810567
Max drawdown($5,406)
Time8/13/19 0:00
Quant open335
Worst price93.33
Drawdown as % of equity-2.14%
($2,724)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $10.18
8/14/19 11:19 TVIX VELOCITYSHARES DAILY 2X VIX SH LONG 560 21.98 8/16 15:52 19.88 0.5%
Trade id #124931749
Max drawdown($1,235)
Time8/14/19 11:19
Quant open560
Worst price19.77
Drawdown as % of equity-0.50%
($1,178)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
8/14/19 11:14 SOXL DIREXION DAILY SEMICONDCT BULL LONG 185 138.48 8/15 13:48 135.98 0.34%
Trade id #124931515
Max drawdown($842)
Time8/14/19 11:14
Quant open185
Worst price133.93
Drawdown as % of equity-0.34%
($467)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.70

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    2/5/2018
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $35,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    590.16
  • Age
    20 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    727
  • # Profitable
    451
  • % Profitable
    62.00%
  • Avg trade duration
    6.2 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    19.41%
  • drawdown period
    Aug 07, 2019 - Sept 18, 2019
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    6.2%
  • Avg win
    $950.71
  • Avg loss
    $1,482
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $143,086
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $144,569
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.08:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.29
  • Sortino Ratio
    0.42
  • Calmar Ratio
    0.45
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.22910
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    6.2%
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    7.7%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    32.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    3.50%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    0.50%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    763
  • C2 Score
    7
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $1,483
  • Avg Win
    $951
  • # Winners
    451
  • # Losers
    276
  • % Winners
    62.0%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    8949.28
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    149.16
  • Avg Trade Length
    6.2 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    0
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.52
  • Daily leverage (max)
    3.34
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.01
  • Beta
    0.21
  • Treynor Index
    0.07
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    202.475
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    1.747
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -4.274
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.006
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.06172
  • SD
    0.16349
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.37753
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.36154
  • df
    18.00000
  • t
    0.47505
  • p
    0.44436
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.19006
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.93480
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.20055
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.92363
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.58094
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.14597
  • Upside part of mean
    0.22801
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.16628
  • Upside SD
    0.11980
  • Downside SD
    0.10625
  • N nonnegative terms
    10.00000
  • N negative terms
    9.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    19.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.05892
  • Mean of criterion
    0.06172
  • SD of predictor
    0.11219
  • SD of criterion
    0.16349
  • Covariance
    -0.00479
  • r
    -0.26121
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.38065
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.08415
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02637
  • DF error
    17.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.11572
  • p(b)
    0.66438
  • t(a)
    0.64428
  • p(a)
    0.40210
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1.10045
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.33915
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.19142
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.35972
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.16215
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.08415
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.04881
  • SD
    0.16369
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.29822
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.28559
  • df
    18.00000
  • t
    0.37526
  • p
    0.45595
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.26646
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.85478
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.27482
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.84600
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.43669
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.97468
  • Upside part of mean
    0.22074
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.17192
  • Upside SD
    0.11439
  • Downside SD
    0.11178
  • N nonnegative terms
    10.00000
  • N negative terms
    9.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    19.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.05271
  • Mean of criterion
    0.04881
  • SD of predictor
    0.11219
  • SD of criterion
    0.16369
  • Covariance
    -0.00469
  • r
    -0.25561
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.37296
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.06847
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02652
  • DF error
    17.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.09014
  • p(b)
    0.66094
  • t(a)
    0.52405
  • p(a)
    0.41994
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1.09476
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.34885
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.20720
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.34414
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.13089
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.06847
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.07101
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.08903
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03060
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.06257
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    19.00000
  • Minimum
    0.88336
  • Quartile 1
    0.98671
  • Median
    1.00574
  • Quartile 3
    1.03229
  • Maximum
    1.12467
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.95617
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99652
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.02256
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.05766
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.04558
  • Number outliers low
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.05263
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.88336
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.05263
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.12467
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.44822
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.04570
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.09614
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    1.14498
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.06389
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    5.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00359
  • Quartile 1
    0.01037
  • Median
    0.04688
  • Quartile 3
    0.06315
  • Maximum
    0.11664
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00698
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.04688
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.06315
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.11664
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.05278
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.08158
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.07974
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.68367
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.68367
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.89566
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.05686
  • SD
    0.14202
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.40037
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.39965
  • df
    418.00000
  • t
    0.50631
  • p
    0.30645
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.14996
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.95023
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.15045
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.94974
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.59209
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.72902
  • Upside part of mean
    0.83824
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.78138
  • Upside SD
    0.10446
  • Downside SD
    0.09603
  • N nonnegative terms
    211.00000
  • N negative terms
    208.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    419.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.06359
  • Mean of criterion
    0.05686
  • SD of predictor
    0.15665
  • SD of criterion
    0.14202
  • Covariance
    0.00523
  • r
    0.23504
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.21308
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.04300
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01910
  • DF error
    417.00000
  • t(b)
    4.93795
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    0.39616
  • p(a)
    0.34609
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.12826
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.29790
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.17158
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.25819
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.26684
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.04331
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.04681
  • SD
    0.14178
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.33016
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.32956
  • df
    418.00000
  • t
    0.41752
  • p
    0.33826
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.22001
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.88002
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.22045
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.87958
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.48313
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.59512
  • Upside part of mean
    0.83278
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.78597
  • Upside SD
    0.10332
  • Downside SD
    0.09689
  • N nonnegative terms
    211.00000
  • N negative terms
    208.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    419.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.05131
  • Mean of criterion
    0.04681
  • SD of predictor
    0.15691
  • SD of criterion
    0.14178
  • Covariance
    0.00526
  • r
    0.23658
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.21378
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.03584
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01902
  • DF error
    417.00000
  • t(b)
    4.97228
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    0.32855
  • p(a)
    0.37133
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.12927
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.29829
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.17859
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.25027
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.21897
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.03584
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01413
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01773
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00686
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01323
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    419.00000
  • Minimum
    0.96236
  • Quartile 1
    0.99618
  • Median
    1.00012
  • Quartile 3
    1.00484
  • Maximum
    1.05101
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99019
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99812
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00229
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01071
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00866
  • Number outliers low
    13.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.03103
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97759
  • Number of outliers high
    10.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.02387
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.02723
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.17407
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00951
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01437
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.09309
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00960
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01381
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    28.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00024
  • Quartile 1
    0.00468
  • Median
    0.01471
  • Quartile 3
    0.02625
  • Maximum
    0.17229
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00243
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00929
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.02202
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.07985
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02157
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.14286
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.11150
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.03192
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.07271
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.10285
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.19464
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.11508
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.19186
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.07936
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.07758
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.45028
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.97152
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    4.37682
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.05177
  • SD
    0.18191
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.28456
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.28292
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.20121
  • p
    0.50882
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.05610
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.48795
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.05493
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.48910
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.42725
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.24813
  • Upside part of mean
    0.99935
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.05111
  • Upside SD
    0.13480
  • Downside SD
    0.12116
  • N nonnegative terms
    60.00000
  • N negative terms
    71.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.10043
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.05177
  • SD of predictor
    0.13609
  • SD of criterion
    0.18191
  • Covariance
    -0.00334
  • r
    -0.13476
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.18013
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.03368
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03274
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.54464
  • p(b)
    0.58553
  • t(a)
    -0.13145
  • p(a)
    0.50737
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.41086
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.05060
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.54052
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.47317
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.28738
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.03368
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.06811
  • SD
    0.18130
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.37568
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.37351
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.26565
  • p
    0.51165
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.14714
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.39710
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.14569
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.39867
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.55655
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.09209
  • Upside part of mean
    0.99033
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.05844
  • Upside SD
    0.13289
  • Downside SD
    0.12238
  • N nonnegative terms
    60.00000
  • N negative terms
    71.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.09117
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.06811
  • SD of predictor
    0.13658
  • SD of criterion
    0.18130
  • Covariance
    -0.00329
  • r
    -0.13299
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.17653
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.05202
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03254
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.52405
  • p(b)
    0.58442
  • t(a)
    -0.20373
  • p(a)
    0.51142
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.40571
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.05264
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.55718
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.45314
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.38583
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.05202
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01851
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02308
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00978
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01795
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.96236
  • Quartile 1
    0.99445
  • Median
    0.99957
  • Quartile 3
    1.00514
  • Maximum
    1.05101
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98711
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99722
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00178
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01358
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01069
  • Number outliers low
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.01527
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.96723
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.03053
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.03389
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.21352
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01251
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01549
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.05277
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01415
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01895
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    12.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00092
  • Quartile 1
    0.00762
  • Median
    0.02207
  • Quartile 3
    0.03617
  • Maximum
    0.17229
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00276
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01325
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.02704
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.10314
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02855
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.16667
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.13167
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -3.42098
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.10464
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.10539
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.14766
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.17686
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.24328
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.03980
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.03941
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.22873
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.38209
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -1.70706

Strategy Description

Maestro Capital Research’s flagship strategy, Forte, which is the result of over 17 years of research and development, is a rules-based trading method using a basket of NYSE- and Nasdaq-listed stocks and exchange traded funds (ETFs).

Historically, certain stocks and ETFs have predictable tendencies depending on industry characteristics, size, trading volume, market volatility, seasonality, economic, monthly cycles, etc. The Forte Strategy is designed to capitalize on mean-reversion, trend and consolidation patterns driven by these factors using optimal risk-controlled position sizing, profit targets, and stop losses while achieving consistent returns with minimal drawdowns.

The Forte Strategy attempts to minimize the use of margin, so returns are achievable for both trading and retirement accounts. It also takes only long positions, utilizing short ETFs as a hedge when necessary. The Forte Strategy will generate 2-3 trade signals per day on average, so we encourage you to use C2's AutoTrade feature to minimize the risk of missing a trade. As a subscriber, we will also provide profit target and stop losses for all positions.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2018-02-05
Suggested Minimum Capital
$35,000
# Trades
727
# Profitable
451
% Profitable
62.0%
Net Dividends
Correlation S&P500
0.229
Sharpe Ratio
0.29
Sortino Ratio
0.42
Beta
0.21
Alpha
0.01
Leverage
1.52 Average
3.34 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.